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Macadamia crop modelling predicts increase for 2021

macadamia crop modelling
The 2021 Australian macadamia crop is predicted to increase to 50,770 tonnes in-shell according to a census-based forecast. Photo: Australian Macadamia Society

Macadamia crop modelling has predicted the 2021 Australian crop will increase to 50,770 tonnes in-shell, in a census-based forecast.

The predicted tonnage would be at 3.5% moisture (54,440 tonnes in-shell at 10% moisture), with the census-based forecast produced using scientific modelling developed by the Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries.

Australian Macadamia Society CEO Jolyon Burnett said this season’s growing conditions have been more favourable than last year, with some variances from region to region. 

“Some farms are still being affected by dry conditions, but others are performing well,” says Mr Burnett. 

“Large growing regions, like the Northern Rivers, have experienced good rainfall over the season, and overall, nut size is bigger in most regions although thicker shells are likely to reduce kernel recoveries.”  

Mr Burnett says, in the largest producing region of Bundaberg, some varieties have experienced poor nut set compared to 2020. 

“This is likely to be offset by young trees coming into production in the Bundaberg and surrounding regions,” he said.

This macadamia crop modelling forecast is an early estimate and will be further refined as the harvest gets underway in the coming weeks and months. 

A mid-season crop report will be provided in May/June 2021. 

The forecast comes after a bumper year for macadamia crops with Bundaberg farms contributing significantly to a higher than expected 2020 national crop of 50,300 tonnes in-shell at 10 per cent moisture.

The project ‘Macadamia Crop Forecasting’ has been funded by Hort Innovation using the macadamia industry levy and funds from the Australian Government. 

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